Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.267930 0.325996 0.396940 0.491118 0.614559 0.773276 0.996820
2025-04-27 0.165798 0.219146 0.291638 0.400061 0.563041 0.807496 1.219749
2025-05-04 0.114953 0.162354 0.232616 0.348947 0.546557 0.889232 1.582069
2025-05-11 0.082427 0.122878 0.187319 0.303751 0.524411 0.963022 2.027355
2025-05-18 0.059814 0.093097 0.149309 0.258552 0.486157 0.998118 2.480153
2025-05-25 0.044673 0.072091 0.120755 0.221530 0.450151 1.027602 3.021449
2025-06-01 0.036031 0.060359 0.105837 0.206646 0.457913 1.183442 4.300124
2025-06-08 0.029769 0.051598 0.094405 0.195596 0.472096 1.387718 6.401747
2025-06-15 0.025290 0.045281 0.086335 0.189740 0.500029 1.689844 10.356418
2025-06-22 0.021768 0.040146 0.079531 0.184854 0.531099 2.074414 17.645272
2025-06-29 0.018440 0.034789 0.071002 0.172526 0.531966 2.353374 27.408572
2025-07-06 0.014662 0.027883 0.057512 0.141998 0.449318 2.083640 27.577078
2025-07-13 0.012790 0.024901 0.052993 0.137256 0.470073 2.530713 52.184171
2025-07-20 0.011505 0.022989 0.050676 0.138652 0.521473 3.386824 135.262010
2025-07-27 0.010520 0.021587 0.049345 0.143072 0.596312 4.831283 521.223605
2025-08-03 0.009522 0.019977 0.047100 0.143617 0.656613 6.593388 2707.016917
2025-08-10 0.008474 0.018075 0.043621 0.138244 0.679946 8.183378 18163.116596
2025-08-17 0.007525 0.016274 0.040048 0.131140 0.687263 9.771336 320047.540115
2025-08-24 0.006920 0.015245 0.038527 0.132011 0.757272 13.880897 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006392 0.014332 0.037155 0.133064 0.836086 20.248282 NaN
2025-09-07 0.005961 0.013608 0.036218 0.135857 0.942055 31.781166 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005566 0.012921 0.035245 0.138167 1.055791 51.204089 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005101 0.011972 0.033195 0.134051 1.095581 70.052231 NaN